Review of panel price trends in 2024

Looking back to 2024, the global panel market has experienced a complex cycle of fluctuations, and the upstream and downstream industry chains are facing multiple challenges from supply and demand imbalances, changes in market demand, and the external macro environment.

From the rise in panel prices at the beginning of the year due to material shortages and low inventory, to the slowdown in growth in the middle of the year due to the early release of demand and mid-year promotions such as 618 that were less effective than expected, to the stabilization of prices supported by China’s trade-in policy at the end of the year, various factors intertwined to form a picture of the development of the panel industry in 2024.

Under the continued influence of the "old for new" policy, panel prices are expected to grow again in early 2025.

First half of 2024: Strong growth, both panel volume and price

In the first half of 2024, LCD panel prices will usher in a significant upward cycle. The main driving factors for this trend include the tight supply of upstream materials caused by the earthquake in Japan at the beginning of the year, low inventory levels due to production cuts and equipment maintenance at panel factories, and increased stocking demand from terminal brands.

Taking TV panels as an example, their prices have fully recovered since February and expanded in March. Monitors and laptop panels have also been driven by the increase in TV panel prices. Some sizes, such as 23.8-inch and 27-inch IPS products for monitors, have started to rise since April.

Nonetheless, the recovery of the panel market in the first half of 2024 still has certain limitations. Due to the advance demand, brands' willingness to stock up began to weaken in May. In June, the results of mid-year promotions such as 618.com were not as good as expected, which also made brand customers unable to expand and continue the panel purchasing momentum in the previous months in the short term. Prices of TV panels of all sizes turned to the same level.

Panel prices reached their highest level in the first half of the year in June, which was also the highest level in two years. Taking TV panels as an example, the price of a 65-inch panel is US$178, the price of a 55-inch panel is US$130, the price of a 43-inch panel is US$65, and the price of a 32-inch panel is US$37;

In terms of display panels, the prices of 27-inch and 23.8-inch IPS panels have reached highs in recent years, at US$63.1 and US$49.7 respectively; in terms of notebook panels, the prices of 14-inch and 11.6-inch TN panels have also reached highs in recent years, at US$26.9 and US$25.1 respectively, while the prices of 17.3-inch TN panels and 15.6-inch Value IPS panels have been stable at US$38.3 and US$40.4 in the long term.

Second half of 2024: Panel prices fall, and national subsidy policies stabilize price trends

Entering the second half of the year, panel prices gradually shift from rising to flat or even falling. Among them, in the third quarter, the demand for TV panels weakened significantly, and the prices of most sizes continued to decline. In particular, large-size panels were under the dual pressure of weakening demand and slowing procurement of international brands.

After experiencing continuous declines, in September, TV panel prices reached their lowest point in the second half of the year, with 65-inch panel prices at US$171, 55-inch panels at US$124, 43-inch panels at US$63, and 32-inch panels at US$34;

Affected by the decline in TV panel prices and the inventory of monitor panels in the hands of brand customers, monitor panel prices also declined in the third quarter. Laptop panel prices have remained at a stable level as buyers and sellers maintain a stable purchasing and shipping rhythm.

However, with the release of China’s trade-in subsidy policy in September, panel factories implemented production cuts, and the demand for oversized TV panels increased significantly, TV panel prices stopped falling and stabilized in the fourth quarter. TrendForce data shows that the price of TV panels of 65 inches and above increased slightly in December.

On the other hand, due to the traditional off-season, the prices of monitors and laptop panels have declined. However, facing the potential risks brought about by the US tariff adjustment in 2025, brand owners started stocking up in December in advance, and panel prices stopped falling.

As the national subsidy policy continues, panel prices will rise in the first quarter of 2025?

Overall, compared with 2023, driven by internal and external factors such as market, policy, and corporate production control, panel prices will rise overall in 2024, which will also make the panel industry gradually recover. Judging from the relevant performance reports for 2024 released by panel companies such as TCL Technology, LG Display, BOE, AUO, Shenzhen Tianma, etc., in the past year, the performance of panel companies has improved significantly compared with 2023:

TCL Technology predicts that the company’s semiconductor display business profits will increase significantly in 2024, with the full-year net profit exceeding 6 billion yuan. Benefiting from the impact of average production and sales on the supply side and domestic consumption promotion activities, the prices of major products have shown seasonal narrow range fluctuations, and the annual average price has maintained a steady increase;

LG Display will achieve consolidated annual revenue of 26.6 trillion won in 2024, with a net profit loss of approximately 2.56 trillion won, narrowing the loss by approximately 1.71 trillion won from the previous year;

Visionox estimates that its full-year revenue in 2024 will be 7.7 billion to 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% to 35.00%. The net profit loss attributable to the parent company will shrink, with the gross profit margin of OLED products increasing by more than 30 percentage points compared with the same period last year;

AUO's cumulative revenue in 2024 will be approximately NT$280.278 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.03%;

Innolux's full-year revenue in 2024 will be NT$216.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%;

BOE expects that the company will achieve net profit attributable to its parent company in 2024 Profit of 5.2 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, an increase of 104% -116% over the same period last year;

Shenzhen Tianma expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2024 of -650 million yuan to -750 million yuan, an improvement of 64.24% - 69.01% over the same period last year;

TPV Technology stated that although the company's profit level has declined in 2024, it has recorded double growth in overall shipment scale and revenue, and its operational competitiveness has been enhanced;

Longteng Optoelectronics expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of -205 million yuan to -175 million yuan in 2024. Compared with the same period last year, the loss will decrease by 73.4165 million yuan to 103 million yuan, a year-on-year loss reduction of 26.37% to 37.14%.

Looking forward to the beginning of 2025, panel prices are expected to continue to maintain growth momentum, and panel companies are also expected to continue to see a recovery in performance in the first quarter.

Fan Boyu, vice president of research at TrendForce, previously said that in January 2025, with the continuation of the domestic old-for-new policy, the demand for TV stocking is stable, and the demand for oversized panels is even more intense. The current production capacity of panel manufacturers is also mainly to meet demand as much as possible, and it is expected that there will be no annual maintenance and production control during the Lunar New Year.

Therefore, on January 20, TrendForce released panel prices for January 2025, which showed that demand for TV panels was strong and prices rose; monitor and laptop panel prices remained flat.

Recently, TrendForce announced the 2025 2 The monthly panel price forecast shows that the demand for TV panels is expected to be stable in February and the price increase trend will continue; the demand for monitor panels has strengthened month by month since February; while the price of laptop panels has remained flat.

Fan Boyu said that the domestic trade-in policy allowed most TV brand customers to maintain strong purchasing momentum from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. In addition, advance stocking in response to the implementation of US tariffs offset the impact of tariff issues in a short period of time. Therefore, TV panel prices are expected to continue to receive support from rising prices.

Due to the capacity-crowding effect caused by the increase in demand for TV panels, the demand for monitor panels is also gradually increasing. Overall shipments in the first quarter are likely to increase by 0.5% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and prices are also on the rise. Laptop panel demand is still in the traditional off-season cycle, and the overall demand in the first quarter is estimated to be 5.5% lower than the fourth quarter of last year.

Looking forward to 2025 and beyond, what other factors will affect the supply and demand of terminal TVs, monitors, and notebooks, and what impact will they have on the panel industry?

February 26 and 27, 2025, Tre ndForce’s LEDinside and WitsView subsidiaries will hold the two-day 2025 TrendForce New Display Industry Seminar at the JW Marriott Hotel Shenzhen.

At that time, industry experts and senior analysts will conduct in-depth analysis of the latest market conditions and development trends of the micro, small, medium and ultra-large display industries, and decipher the latest trends in the display industry.