With the maturity of LED lighting product technology and stable quality, lamps used to be replaced once every 1-2 years, now every 4-5 years or even 10 years. The replacement cycle of lamps has become longer, which indirectly leads to the shrinkage of the lighting market.
The longevity of LED means that there will be no need for so many people to "play" in the future
Philips Lumileds Asia Marketing Director Zhou Xuejun: LED lighting products have experienced three waves, the first wave of high power, the second wave of medium power, and then the third wave of smart lighting. At present, 99% of indoor lighting designs are based on medium power, and the price is very high. At the same time, the service life is also declining, from the original 30,000 hours, to 25,000 hours, to 15,000 hours, to 10,000 hours, and there may be 6,000 hours in the future. In different application fields, the service life of lamps is different. For example, in the home, the time to turn on the lights is not long, and in the professional field, the time required may be longer. In the past, energy-saving lamps had a service life of 3,000-4,000 hours and were very useful. LED lighting products do not need to have a service life of more than 10,000 hours in the future. The energy-saving effect will be very good simply by increasing it to 7,000-8,000 hours. The long life of LED will definitely have an impact on the industry, and there will be no need for so many manufacturers in the future.
On the other hand, how companies can increase the value of application products by increasing added value. This industry is too forward-looking. The LED penetration rate has not yet reached 50%, and various companies have already begun to discuss the third wave. Everyone is making products with anticipation for the industry.
Today there are three foreigners and three domestic people in the industry. It can be said that PK is hot. Our lives are getting richer and richer, and the "Chinese Dream" is now popular, and it is becoming more and more dreamy and beautiful. Today's lamps are not just a lighting item, they are a concrete manifestation of many beautiful Chinese dreams. For example, with intelligence, communication, convenience, etc., lifespan is no longer a problem. The key is that lighting brings endless wonderful changes to life.
Currently in the functional lighting stage, LED will develop in the direction of experiential consumption in the future
Chen Qi, Chairman of High Energy New Materials Company: At present, the lighting market focuses more on functional requirements and on the level of industrial products. In the next step, companies should expand some emerging applications and make LED lighting products through innovation into products that can truly allow consumers to experience consumption. Taking home furnishing as an example, the current update of lighting products must be synchronized with the home decoration style, which restricts lighting products. When designing products, it is necessary to innovate the design so that it can be easily replaced independently and does not depend on home decoration. This year, I did not appear at Guangya Exhibition, but I showed it in a nearby hotel because this way I can get closer to consumers and customers and facilitate communication.
The market will maintain a growth rate of more than 8% in the next 5-10 years, and the LED penetration rate will reach 40% next year.
Gao Ming, general manager of lighting technology at General Electric (GE) Lighting Group: GE will never give up on the Chinese market. It will focus on market promotion and put resources on more effective promotion. Many people say that the lighting industry will be saturated in the near future due to the influence of LED product technology and performance, but I think it is more appropriate to ask this question three to five years from now. The LED lighting market is growing rapidly this year, especially the LED light source replacement market this year. Many financial reports show that several major LED companies have grown by more than 10%, while traditional lighting has been greatly affected. Internal discussions have concluded that the market will maintain a growth rate of more than 8% in the next 5-10 years, and the penetration rate will reach 40% next year and even 70% in the next few years. This speed exceeds imagination. As for how to create more value in the future, intelligence will be a general direction in improving the added value of products in the future. In addition, companies can create more creative products for consumers in special application areas.
In the future, there will be standardization of local areas in the field of lighting
Zhang Yi, General Manager of Cooper Electric (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.: We are purely a manufacturer of lighting applications. Upstream manufacturers such as GE and Osram put pressure on us. There are also many companies in the same field, including many competitors in the Pearl River Delta region. With so many manufacturers competing, it is not easy to retreat. I have seen the beginning of many companies, and I have also seen the end of companies in a short period of time. The most painful thing about this industry is that when we all think it is the rising sun, many times it has already gone into the sunset.
Nowadays, many people in the industry are discussing how much it costs per watt, and have been squeezing themselves into cost competition. In fact, they should consider the effective illumination per unit area. Think again, in the LED era, what are lamps? Why strip lights? Why a light source? Why floodlights? The reason for this comes from our traditional light sources. Because of T5 and T8, we have strip lights. In the LED era, many people directly put the light source into T5 and T8.
Our light is architectural and embodies the beauty of the building at night. Why not consider the unit structure of lighting with the building as the main body? This is one aspect for us to move forward. Another is that functional lighting is highly standardized. I have been to many cities in the United States and Thailand and found some commonalities. The street lighting used in each urban area is basically the same style. New York modifies the standard every three years. Each standard only has three products. Once finalized, it will not be changed. This has great continuity and management convenience for the city. This is done in cities in developed and developing countries such as Bangkok, Sydney, and New York. I believe that as China develops in the future, the lighting field will realize standardization in local areas. From the perspective of long-term functional application lighting, the standards will gradually be refined. Following the standards can help many companies avoid detours.
Although LED has a long life, the market volume will continue to expand in the future
科锐中国区营业总经理兼技术总监邵嘉平：目前LED照明产品品质更好，寿命更长，一般经过一段发展时期之后会达到巅峰并随即下降，但我认为在未来发展中市场量会继续拓展，就像Iphone 4S那样，其产品的性能与寿命都比以往要好，但却在市场引起火爆。个人不觉得三五年后市场会达到饱和。灯具除了寿命之外，更重要是将灯的工业设计、光源、审美、智能控制等方面努力，这个市场还是有很大的潜力。
科学、技术、文化的“跨界”融合是行业未来发展一个方向
清华大学建筑学工学博士常志刚：建筑灯光审美现在的表现方式都是模仿过去太阳照亮建筑那种方式，所以都是按照在太阳的照耀底的标准� 量灯具的性能，显色性这个指标就是最好的说明。显色性是一个旧观念，我觉得灯光不一定就是去投射，去直接照在建筑体，它有更多的表现方式。
When designers design, they are creating a way of life that provides the best service to the existing lifestyle. Artists, on the other hand, respond to the two extremes of the existing lifestyle. One is a bad choice, and the other is a good choice. Artists are reflective, lighting designers are serving.
艺术、设计、技术怎么去结合这是我们应该思考的事情。开会议的时候，很多照明行业人士强调更多是技术指标的提升，老百姓对技术指标并不感兴趣。我觉得应该先有社会影响，才有经济发展、才有商业模式、才有企业盈利。在做产业技术精湛的时候，能够回到源头，从使用者的角度思考。 So I think two types of people are more important, that is, designers and artists. Designers communicate directly with product users, while artists think at a higher level and think about issues from the perspective of the industry and even society and culture. How can the lighting industry promote the combination of science, technology, culture and other elements? I think "cross-border" is an important direction for the future development of the industry.行业的思考应该摆脱行业自身圈子来思考。
ANNA