TrendForce 2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis Report Published

According to TrendForce's latest report "Global LED Lighting Market Analysis 2024-1H24", multiple factors have led to the lighting market demand not rebounding as expected in 2023. TrendForce once again revised down the LED lighting output value in 2023 to US$58.5 billion, a 5% year-on-year decrease.

Looking forward to 2024, 5.788 billion LED light sources and lamps will gradually reach the limit of their service life and be retired, which will bring considerable demand for secondary replacement, and the LED lighting market is expected to reverse its decline. TrendForce estimates that the global LED lighting market will grow by 4% to US$60.9 billion in 2024.

LED agricultural lighting market

On the one hand, short-term industrial difficulties have inhibited the willingness to invest in plant factories. Upstream lighting manufacturers have also changed their radical expansion plans and even begun to sell plant lighting equipment assets. The overall atmosphere has become conservative, which will undoubtedly make the penetration process of LED plant lighting slower than expected;

On the other hand, as the power of Chinese manufacturers begins to penetrate into the midstream and upstream supply chains of horticultural lighting, the knowledge of light formulas, which constitutes a key barrier to the horticultural lighting supply chain, has become popularized. This has intensified competition within the industry chain, leading to an acceleration of price declines. However, the price elasticity of terminal demand for horticultural lighting is far less than that of general lighting. Therefore, it is difficult to stimulate significant growth in demand through price reductions. The drop in price will lead to a temporary decline in the expected output value of this industry.

Governments of various countries are considering local food safety and increasing policy support to promote the development of smart agriculture. For example, Israel, Dubai and North Africa continue to invest in vertical farms; China will import 160 million tons of grain in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The Chinese government will increase agricultural investment in the next five years, which will benefit Agricultural lighting market.

Secondly, the acceleration of urbanization, the reduction of per capita cultivated land, the serious aging of the population, and the sudden decrease in the number of newborns are forcing breakthroughs and development in agricultural technology. In 2024, the agricultural lighting industry will combine AI, sensors, drones and other technologies to jointly promote the further maturity of intelligent agriculture. In 2025, some areas will realize large-area smart agriculture to assist monitoring and management, and the agricultural lighting market such as plant lighting, livestock lighting, breeding lighting, fishery lighting, and microalgae growth will usher in new opportunities.

LED agricultural lighting technology can not only improve quality, growth speed, etc., but also prevent pests and diseases and increase yields. With the improvement of living standards, human beings are pursuing higher levels of spiritual and material enjoyment. Various flavors of food, high technology, highly transparent cultivation processes and other characteristics will create future agricultural lighting market segments.

Revenue and development strategies of lighting companies

According to statistics from TrendForce, the top five lighting manufacturers in global lighting revenue in 2023 are Signify and Acuit. y Brands, Panasonic, LEDVANCE vs. MLS Lighting and Zumtobel. Demand in the lighting market will be weak in 2023, with the total lighting revenue of the top 20 manufacturers falling by 4.5%. The export situation of Chinese lighting manufacturers is not as good as in previous years. In 2023, they will focus on the local market.

Judging from the characteristics of new product launches, smart dimming and color adjustment and high energy saving are the main focus of most European and American manufacturers. The promotion of the concept of main-light-less home lighting market has led most manufacturers to actively launch higher-quality downlights, spotlights, light strips and other products.

From the perspective of profitability, profit compression and inventory clearance will be the main topic for lighting companies in 2023 due to energy shortages, frequent supply chain problems, high inventories and other reasons.

From the perspective of the industry chain, industry chain integration is the main strategic development direction of major lighting manufacturers in the next three years. Scale efficiency is the main means of future corporate profitability. If a company does not have core technology or a well-known brand, it will be annexed or eliminated.

Due to the severe global economic environment and unstable political situation As governments around the world tighten construction funding, lighting companies' orders in developed countries in 2023 are not ideal, but orders in developing countries are showing a rebound trend. In 2024, governments will reach the climate management node, and it is worth looking forward to the budgets of governments in the LED lighting replacement market being better than in previous years.

LED lighting packaging market

Compared with downstream finished product manufacturers, lighting LED devices will bear greater price reduction pressure in 2023. Especially in the industry improvement stage in 2021, there will still be a lot of new production capacity investment, and by 2023, it will enter the release period of production capacity.

Terminal demand has not improved significantly in 2023, and has even declined further, further aggravating the imbalance between lighting LED supply and demand. However, judging from the decline, the decline has converged in 2023. The long-term unprofitable situation has made some manufacturers intend to quit. In order to reduce losses, major international brand manufacturers have also gradually withdrawn from the lighting LED market. Overall, TrendForce estimates that the LED market output value for general lighting, architectural lighting and agricultural lighting will decline to 42.3% in 2023 $600 million (-17% YoY). In the long run, 2835/3030 will still be the two types of devices with the largest proportion, and other varieties will be difficult to shake their status. Lighting LEDs have always had low demand for miniaturization, so the 3014/4014 packaging structure will never become mainstream. Competition between COB and discrete devices will always exist, but in most application areas they are still distinct.

According to TrendForce Research, although the LED commercial lighting market demand will pick up in 2023, the agricultural (plant) lighting market demand will gradually pick up in 3Q23. However, affected by the continued downturn in the overall economy, the proportion of low-end lighting LED products has increased. TrendForce estimates that the global lighting package level (general lighting) market will reach US$3.686 billion in 2024. (Text: TrendForce Consulting)

TrendForce 2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis Report-1H24

Publication date: February 1, 2024; July 31, 2024
Language: Traditional Chinese / English
Format: PDF and EXCEL
Number of pages: 90-100 (each time)


Chapter 1 Global Lighting Market Trends

TrendForce LED Lighting Market Scale - Research Methodology
TrendForce LED Lighting Market Product Definition
TrendForce LED Lighting Market Product Definition - Light Source Type
TrendForce LED Lighting Market Product Definition - Lamps
2024-2028 Global LED Lighting Market Scale Estimation - Product Category
2024-2028 Global LED Lighting Market Scale Estimation - Amount vs. Regional Category
2023-2024 Global LED lighting market size estimate - product category
2024-2028 Global LED lighting market size estimate - Application category
2023 Global LED lighting product market size - Amount basis: Region vs. Product category
2023 Global LED lighting product market size - Quantity basis: Region vs. Product category
2024 Global LED lighting product market size - Amount basis: District Region vs. Product Category
2024 Global LED Lighting Product Market Size - Quantity Basis: Region vs. Product Category
2028 Global LED Lighting Product Market Scale - Monetary Basis: Region vs. Product Category
2028 Global LED Lighting Product Market Scale - Quantity Basis: Region vs. Product Category

Chapter 2 LED Plant Lighting Supply and Demand Market Trends

2.1 LED plant lighting market trends
Main driving and hindering factors for LED plant lighting market growth
2024-2028 LED plant lighting market size
2024-2028 LED plant lighting market size - amount vs. application
2024-2028 LED plant lighting market size - amount vs. region

2.2 LED Market Trends for Agricultural Lighting
2024-2028 Agricultural Lighting LED Market Scale - LED Packaging
2024-2028 Agricultural Lighting LED Market Scale - Power Category
Plant Lighting Supply Chain List

Chapter 3 Revenue and Development Strategies of Lighting Manufacturers

Global Representative List of Lighting Vendors
2021-2023 (E) Top 20 Lighting Vendors: Total Lighting Revenue Estimates and Rankings
2021-2023 (E) Top 20 Lighting Vendors: LED Lighting Revenue Estimates and Rankings
Vendor Revenue and Product Dynamics Analysis
Signify
Zumtobel
Fagerhult
Acuity Brands
Current Lighting Solutions
Panasonic
Endo Lighting
2022-2023 (E) Top 10 Chinese Lighting Vendors: Lighting and LED Lighting Revenue Estimates
Vendor Revenue and Product Dynamics Analysis
MLS/LEDVANCE
Opp Lighting
NVC

Lighting Foshan
Lighting

Chapter 4 Lighting level packaging market

2024-2028 Lighting-level packaging market size - application type
2024-2028 Lighting-level packaging market size - packaging type
2024-2028 Lighting-level packaging market size - power type
2022-2023(E) Top 10 lighting LED packaging factory revenue rankings
2022-2023(E) Lighting LED packaging factory market share

Appendix Lighting market policies and regulations

Policies and regulations for the lighting market-Summary
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-North America
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-DLC requirements for plant lighting
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Europe
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Africa
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Asia Pacific
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Greater Middle East
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Latin America and the Caribbean
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-International Bodies
Policies and regulations related to the lighting market-Corporations