Opinions on the virtual reality industry are polarizing: On one side, some companies are "unprecedentedly enthusiastic" and not only interview products quickly, but also advertise with "passionate"; however, on the other side, industry experts including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have repeatedly pointed out that although the virtual reality industry has huge space, the preparations for technology, products, applications and other aspects are not yet mature at this stage.
This kind of personality tearing in the virtual reality industry is largely rooted in the restlessness of the "Internet". The information dissemination and communication system of the Internet makes it easier for a new thing to explode with energy - the Internet is like a super magnifying glass, and even an ant's legs will look as thick as an elephant. This almost phantom-like effect can easily cause "early" growth anxiety in a new industry.
Now, this kind of "growth anxiety" in the virtual reality industry is very much like the "rebellious period" of teenagers. That is to say, on the one hand, I feel that I can do everything and should do it; on the other hand, my actual ability and behavioral control level are not up to standard. Typical industry data is that in the first half of 2016, among the sales of VR products, products priced below 50 yuan accounted for 40%, and products priced below 200 yuan accounted for 90%.
Based on this data, let me ask: Is this still high-tech?
Anyone can do it: including home appliance companies, Internet companies, software companies, emerging innovative companies, copycat companies; systems worth millions of dollars or even more expensive, VR glasses that can be sold for only ten yuan; secret technical secrets, patented technologies, those Taobao products that have not even thought about the brand and product name...
Everything is packed inside: a 360-degree panoramic live broadcast of a chess match, "ancestors" who can interact with each other on their graves, weightless training equipment for astronauts, new large screens in new-concept cinemas, near-eye glasses in primary school classrooms, adult toys from Japanese companies...
The connotations reflected by these unprecedentedly diversified and even disordered realities, in addition to the huge attraction and considerable development space of virtual reality, are more "restless", "uneasy", "fear of not being able to get on the train", and even a lot of "short-term" opportunism. It can be said that these trends of thought are all undesirable and will inevitably lead to failure.
For the virtual reality industry, what are the most critical core technologies and experiences? Dapingjun believes that it should be divided into two aspects:
First, full field of view stereoscopic display system. Although the "holographic deck" similar to that in "Star Trek" is far beyond the cognitive scope of our current technology and physical theory, the effect that virtual reality pursues is undoubtedly "reality."
There are two ideas to achieve a highly realistic field of view display: the first is a huge display system, a dome screen or a ring screen. It can accommodate many people watching at the same time. Such systems generally utilize projector display, edge blending and existing 3D technology. Another type of full-field stereoscopic display system is a compact device: glasses or a helmet. These devices rely on being extremely close to the eye to produce images that cover the entire field of view. The authenticity of the near-eye display system relies on higher resolution and higher refresh rate display screens, 3D technology, and near-eye optical systems.
For virtual reality display technology, there are currently at least enough "mature" upstream product supports. What it lacks is further improvement in the performance indicators of key components. In other words, this part of the "have or not" problem has been solved, and the key to research and development lies in whether there is a good enough experience. ——This also provides the ground for the explosive debut of a large number of VR devices of varying quality.
Second, full-dimensional mechanical perception and feedback system. It mainly includes machine vision, machine touch, machine dynamics and orientation perception, machine hearing, machine smell, etc. The core of innovation in these aspects is: modeling and analysis of multiple sensors, sensor data, semantic technology, and selecting appropriate and safe feedback chains in behavioral models.
For full-dimensional machine perception and feedback systems, the core difficulty now focuses on mathematical methods. For example, in machine hearing products, ordinary mobile phones can convert human language into text language - however, the mobile phone does not understand the meaning of these sounds or words, and therefore cannot provide feedback. The same is true for machine vision. Taking a photo, dual cameras to take stereoscopic photos and videos, multiple cameras to take three-dimensional holographic videos of the entire airspace - these are not difficult things. The real difficulty is how to let the computer know the meaning of these videos. Of course, for example, machine smell technology, not only the back-end data processing technology needs to be developed, but the front-end sensor technology also needs to be developed.
At the same time, the development of machine feedback technology is not very comprehensive, and technologies including display and sound are relatively mature. However, the development of smell and touch technologies is relatively low-level.
In fact, this full-dimensional machine perception and feedback system is more similar to "intelligent technology". That is, the problem is not to get information, but to understand the information and give feedback. The technique of establishing and understanding feedback links essentially has a similar mathematical model. This is the same framework as self-driving cars, smart robots, etc.
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other words, the problem of "intelligent understanding" blocks almost all directions of information development, and virtual reality is just one of them.
Of course, this is not to say that the development of virtual reality is based on "a comprehensive solution to all technical problems". More often it is possible to “solve part” of the development part. This is also the “market idea” for most VR, AR and MR products currently on the market.
For example, the core idea of near-eye display and engineered VR systems is to achieve maximum authenticity. The system relies on purpose-built video content and rarely supports real-time content switching. Even if it has some AR perception and interaction capabilities, it is also an action off the line of the established program, and it does not have the ability to create new information feedback results independently and intelligently.
In terms of AR, product practice is carried out in the form of voice commands and motion commands. This product classifies the machine's visual and auditory feedback into a single category in a limited enumeration. And set a feedback action sequence for each classification. Although this structure is very single and linear in function, it is completely in line with the existing "industry basic capabilities" in terms of technical difficulty.
This kind of virtual reality products and systems have "limitations" and "rudimentary nature" in application and experience. So these things also seem to lack the necessary "attractiveness". But that's not the problem. Because such a system also has real social value. Virtual reality products that are simpler than "imagination" are not only easier to implement and have lower product costs, but also point to a specific application that cannot be more specific: the latter will ensure the market demand for this product.
The concept of virtual reality is too big. No scientist in Europe or the United States has proposed the latest universe model - a two-dimensional membrane information storage structure, a projection on a large-scale membrane: that is, the universe is a virtual reality system, except that the information is real, everything else is virtual. Even the "holodeck" in "Star Trek" can truly "kill" any object in it - there is no distinction between true and false.
However, although these ideas are beautiful and attractive, they are not realistic. Because human knowledge cannot yet establish a feasible development path for it. On the contrary, be realistic and use existing technologies to develop practical products, such as somatosensory games, three-dimensional learning machines, virtual training equipment, and industrial simulation systems, which have more real value.
In this regard, the conclusion is: the box of virtual reality is really too big, so that if you just use your imagination, you can fit anything. However, as a specific path for industry development, it is best for us to install those "easily implemented" parts now. "You can't reach a thousand miles without taking small steps." The development of any technical system is no exception, and VR must be the same. Let go of your anxiety, pick up your original intention, and work patiently, only then can VR really become better.