LED blue light chip price declines have converged; packaging manufacturers are optimistic that LED bulb prices will bottom out in the second half of the year

In the second quarter, the price of LED blue-ray chips was affected by the lighting price war. The ASP fell by 10% in a single quarter, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Packaging manufacturer Everlight (2393) believes that the market penetration rate will increase in the second half of the year, and the price of Chinese lighting modules has already fallen. It is expected that the decline in blue-ray chip ASP will quickly converge in the second half of the year, and the decline in the entire second half of the year can be controlled at 10%.

LED packaging factories are optimistic that the price of LED bulbs will bottom out in the second half of the year, which will help eliminate the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market and attract the return of orders; Dongbei said that Philips, a major European and American lighting manufacturer, sold off old inventory at low prices, and the market continues to have a wait-and-see atmosphere. It is estimated that this is just a short-term disorder in the market, and orders will be returned in the third quarter.

According to LED packaging factory estimates, blue-ray chip ASP fell by approximately 14 to 15% in the first half of this year. Although there continued to be price pressure in July, major packaging manufacturers generally believe that the price of LED bulbs has bottomed out in the third quarter, which is conducive to driving demand that will quickly converge the decline in blue-ray LED chips.

Everlight estimates that the decline in the entire second half of the year can be controlled at around 10%, and is optimistic about substantial growth in quantity; Dongbei estimates that the current global penetration rate of LED light bulbs is only about 10-13% as of the beginning of this year. Driven by price cuts by major manufacturers, the penetration rate of LED lighting has the opportunity to double in the second half of the year, which is equivalent to the need to create 1 to 1.2 billion new light bulbs a year.